Yes, AI Will Kill Jobs, Then Create More

Technological evolutions always take away some jobs, but then create more. That will be true with artificial intelligence, too.  

A look back at history should be reassuring. The rise of personal computing and the Internet, for instance, destroyed 3.5 million jobs starting in 1980, McKinsey estimates, but then created 19.3 million jobs. Typists were gone. Software developers arose. More than 2.5 million app developer jobs were created, up from virtually none a few decades earlier. The advent of spreadsheets displaced many bookkeeping jobs, but jobs in accounting and analysis took off. The rise of ATMs resulted in fewer tellers per bank branch. With fewer tellers, it became cheaper to open branches. Banks did so and teller jobs multiplied.  

Bottomline: AI will create more jobs than it takes. 

Here’s why: When we create a step function increase in productivity, we create more jobs in technology and related off-spins. The reason: Technology is not a zero-sum game. Every iteration requires building on top of the previous iteration. The more you build, the more there is to build on top.   

The same thing will happen with AI and custom software. AI will help to drive down the cost of custom software. This reduced cost will lead to an increase in the number of problems that people can solve -- using software -- and spill over to create more and new jobs we cannot even now imagine.    

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I fully expect to see AI-infused tools that make teachers more productive in leading students and then ending up with students who’re better prepared as workers to create opportunities for others. Imagine AI-infused tools helping to reduce costs for solar power so more solar panels get installed or water treatment becomes less expensive, so more treatment facilities get built around the world. That will create more jobs to install and build such systems.  

Expect new AI-inspired software solutions to help address climate change, healthcare costs, and logistical bottlenecks. Out of each of those, new skills and new jobs are likely to arise. Also, if you reduce costs and the time it takes to produce something, you can produce more of something that is affordable for more customers. The whole pie grows, even if one sliver of it, say a particular job function, shrinks.  

Gradual But Substantial 

No doubt, AI will kill some work and some jobs. OpenAI research found that 80% of US workers “could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected” by generative AI, while 19% could see 50% of tasks impacted.  If that happened overnight, that would be highly disruptive. That’s not likely. An MIT study focused on computer vision found that “US businesses would choose not to automate most vision tasks that have “AI exposure” and that only 23% of worker wages being paid for vision tasks would be attractive to automate.”   

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So, while AI displacement could be “substantial,” it will also be gradual, the researchers surmised.   

At the same time, new jobs are already being created. The job-focused researcher, Indeed, this summer reported a tenfold increase in the number of generative AI job postings over the past year. Its research also found that, of 2,800 unique work skills, none are very likely to be replaced by generative AI. Instead, Indeed’s take is that generative AI is “more likely to support workers than replace them.” 

All told, the World Economic Forum predicts that, by next year, 85 million jobs “may be displaced by a shift in the division of labor between humans and machines, while 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labor between humans, machines and algorithms.” 

AI: Unleashing Productivity   

One industry where the shift in the division of labor is already evident is in software development, one of the first industries to be heavily impacted by generative AI.  At least two studies on the impact of AI on software developers have been overwhelmingly positive: Developers are more productive, up to 88% more productive, and they’re happier with their work because the AI tools reduce the drain of more menial tasks and leave more time for higher value work. As those workers engage in higher value, look for more innovative solutions pointed at solving more problems, as I noted earlier. 

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Humans Needed   

What AI won’t do, or cannot yet do, is match human creativity, inquisitiveness, and judgment-making ability. I don’t know if AI will ever get there. But it is advancing fast, and it is giving every worker a huge toolkit to help improve their performance and quickly dispose of lower value tasks. As a result, humans are free to do more creative work and, thus, create innovation and jobs. 

Making the Transition 

In the meantime, companies, schools, and organizations need to take steps to help workers find their way through the transition from a world in which AI is mostly an experiment to where it will continually work alongside humans. 
More investment is needed to reskill and upskill, whether that be around skills particular to AI or to other fields of interest. Enabling fluidity in the workforce will help people with needed skills in one country fill jobs in another. In short, generative AI is a tool that can lift all boats, companies and workers alike, just like previous technologies have done throughout the centuries.