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The competitive landscape for enterprise resource planning (ERP) software companies is changing substantially, pointing to significant shifts in market share over the balance of this decade. While manufacturing organizations understandably are loath to replace software "if it ain't broke," ongoing enhancements to these companies' offerings will make it increasingly attractive to migrate from applications that are already a decade or more old. Absent a recession, we look for acceleration in demand for ERP products (particularly in the second tier) over the next three to five years. Those with the greatest potential in this environment are the "consolidation captains" such as Infor and SSA Global, along with QAD Inc. and SAP. Those likely to lose market share include the array of small vendors, as their viability becomes more tenuous, and JD Edwards. Ventana Research believes that by the end of the decade, a majority of JD Edwards’ current user base will have migrated to new solutions, and only a minority of them will elect "Project Fusion," Oracle's successor to the JD Edwards product it acquired with PeopleSoft.
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