Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier - InformationWeek

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Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
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jfeldman
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jfeldman,
User Rank: Ninja
8/6/2013 | 1:20:03 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
Good stuff. Charles Seife wrote a great book, "Proofiness," where he talks about the misuse of numbers, and the tendency of pundits and executives to ignore precision and margin of error, worth a read.
Reilly Kerr
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Reilly Kerr,
User Rank: Strategist
8/2/2013 | 8:15:54 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
It's inappropriate to include current healthcare IT spending in anybody's forecasting survey. Their primary motivation to spend anything on IT these days is to meet ACA ("Obamacare") requirements for adopting and using EHRs (electronic health records) -- if they want Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement. Given the healthcare sector's 10-year or so lag in technology implementation, were it not for the ACA and the emergence of the BYOD workplace, the vast majority of healthcare IT spending would be on maintenance alone and mostly for admin and other back-office uses. The irony here is that changes in healthcare delivery brought on the full utilization of EHR technologies will first be appreciated by patients, thus making healthcare IT a market advantage. Once things settle a bit, IT and marketing will argue over who gets bragging rights. They'll both be wrong.
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
8/1/2013 | 7:30:00 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
Social network usage deserve some scrutiny. Somehow I suspect that not all 955 million users of Facebook are really as active as the company suggests. And the same can probably be said for Google+.
TerryB
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TerryB,
User Rank: Ninja
8/1/2013 | 6:03:37 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
My favorite is the ROI projections when building a business case for an ERP implementation. Our company just had one very recently to justify putting in Dynamics AX in a business unit running on Access 2000 databases and a software system from 1990's still using Foxpro database which has been long out of support. You'd think that would be justification enough but, no, they predicted they would save $1 million in first year from inventory savings. And this in a company that makes superconductor wire to order for customers, they don't have any stock inventory. And even better, AX will save them $300K every year after! You gotta love it.
ChrisMurphy
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ChrisMurphy,
User Rank: Author
8/1/2013 | 5:29:05 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
That one got me good, too.
OtherJimDonahue
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OtherJimDonahue,
User Rank: Apprentice
8/1/2013 | 5:22:15 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
A writer acquaintance of mine goes on the warpath every Oscar season over the "up to a billion people watch the Oscars" baloney. It is indeed completely baseless.

Jim Donahue
Managing Editor
InformationWeek
David F. Carr
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David F. Carr,
User Rank: Author
8/1/2013 | 5:05:12 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
I always thought Facebook made a somewhat honest distinction between active users and the total # of registered users (including everyone who immediately forgot the password). But the stat is not without its own controversy http://dealbook.nytimes.com/20...
ANON1238069211759
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ANON1238069211759,
User Rank: Apprentice
8/1/2013 | 4:47:16 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
I have often wondered about these hyper inflated projections myself. It is easy to jump on a bandwagon and see the "hockey stick" affect as the data is extrapolated out 10 or 20 years. I am often reminded of a funny movie (I forget which) in where a salesman has a chart of the popularity of disco music. "The popularity of disco music quadrupled between the years 1974 and 1976, if these trends continue....."
D. Henschen
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D. Henschen,
User Rank: Author
8/1/2013 | 4:44:29 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
I propose a "Hypey" award, whereby forecasts are tracked and compared with actual results. This hasn't happened (as far as I know) because you have to wait three to five years to see if these things come true. But maybe we can track down some old forecasts and then give the "Hypey" award to the forecaster with the biggest misses.
Somedude8
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Somedude8,
User Rank: Ninja
8/1/2013 | 4:27:49 PM
re: Hyper-Inflated Tech Stats Grow 217% Crazier
"Maybe those bots are gathering with the hundreds of millions of folks active on Google+ before watching the Academy Awards ceremony."
Almost sprayed soda on my monitor. One of the best lines from a tech article I have read.
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