Apple Watch? No, Thank You - InformationWeek

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Apple Watch? No, Thank You
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Susan_Nunziata
50%
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Susan_Nunziata,
User Rank: Strategist
9/24/2014 | 2:02:50 PM
Re: Good numbers
@Melgross--it's a matter of viewing the glass as half-empty or half-full, really. Your right that compared with the broad " smartwatch" category more people in this survey said they'd choose Apple. However, to really do a fair comparison of that intent, we'd need to poll folks on specific other smartwatch brands. that said, it's quite possible that Apple still has the brand cache to end up being the hot smartwatch, certainly the numbers of people lining up for iPhone 6 and 6 Plus indicates the company retains a cool factor.

To me, the two thirds of respondents who are not interested in Apple's or anyone's smartwatch is more telling.

 
stevew928
50%
50%
stevew928,
User Rank: Ninja
9/23/2014 | 7:04:02 PM
Re: "Impressively" should replace "just"
True. Obviously, Apple decided it was a sizeable enough market to go after. People also used to act like Apple's share of the 'PC' and laptop markets weren't anything too... which was obviously silly.

But, a couple of things to keep in mind. Any polls or surveys of tech geeks are going to weigh in high compared to the general public. And, something like a smart-watch is certainly a first-world luxury in the world-wide market. I say that just to keep market sizes in repect to other markets in mind. So, even if worth-while market, it's not going to sell like smart-phones or even probably tablets. So, it's a fifth of what? Certainly not a fifth of the general populace.
stevew928
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50%
stevew928,
User Rank: Ninja
9/23/2014 | 6:56:07 PM
Re: Smart-phone only... why a watch?
Good point, and technically true. That said, I'm fairly certain Apple will be able to ship what they showed and that the competition isn't going to catch up for some time.
mak63
IW Pick
100%
0%
mak63,
User Rank: Ninja
9/23/2014 | 3:57:00 PM
Re: Smart-phone only... why a watch?
@Stevew928

Apple, no doubt, rules the smart-watch category.

No, not yet. The watch is not even on sale! It's coming "early next year" according to the Apple Watch website.
hho927
100%
0%
hho927,
User Rank: Ninja
9/22/2014 | 5:10:24 PM
Gartner LOL
Gartner predicted Itanium took over the world in the 90s. Then 10 years later predicted otherwise, x86 is still the king.

Gartner just go with the flow. Their prediction is as good as yours.
Michael Endler
50%
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Michael Endler,
User Rank: Author
9/22/2014 | 4:46:41 PM
Re: Good numbers
True. No doubt the margins on the mid-tier and high-end Apple Watches will be obscene, but if any of the Apple Watches approaches "high volume" sales levels, it will be the $349 model. I suspect this model will be comfortable profitable in terms of per-unit components costs, but as you point out, when R&D is considered, things probably get lean really fast. I don't expect Apple Watch to achieve iPhone or even iPad sales figures, but I expect enough sales for Apple to be happy, and for the Apple Watch to cement itself as a meaningful contributor to the Apple ecosystem. People expecting sales akin to previous iOS devices don't have the right expectation; if Apple were aiming for that, they wouldn't have tethered it to the iPhone in the first place. But as you say, time will tell!
GAProgrammer
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50%
GAProgrammer,
User Rank: Ninja
9/22/2014 | 4:38:23 PM
Re: Good numbers
Very true. But they have made their money on the iPhone with volume + margins. I don't think they have the volume this time and even great margins don't matter without volume. Possibly not even enough volume to cover development costs. Only time will tell.

Also keep in mind that Apple has made TONS of money on the AppStore and those add to the iPhone's perceived value by consumers. They could make some extra cash there, but the volume problem still remains. If they don't sell a lot of watches, then very few people will bother making apps.
Michael Endler
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Michael Endler,
User Rank: Author
9/22/2014 | 4:33:20 PM
Re: Good numbers
That's true. There are definitely sampling limitations intrinsic in this sort of polling. That said, Apple cares more about certain segments of buyers than it does others, since not all potential buyers are equally profitable from an ecosystem viewpoint. In that sense, a poll of IT pros is neither the most important nor single biggest indicator-- but I think it's more relevant than a lot of other groups one might survey.
GAProgrammer
50%
50%
GAProgrammer,
User Rank: Ninja
9/22/2014 | 4:31:53 PM
Re: Smartwatch - Not mature enough
Also, they make actual watches that also vibrate when you are too far from your phone.
GAProgrammer
IW Pick
100%
0%
GAProgrammer,
User Rank: Ninja
9/22/2014 | 4:25:04 PM
Re: Good numbers
70% of 25% of a flash poll geared towards tech people, which probably represents 10% of the market?

So that is 70% of 7%, so 4.9% of the potential market is a success? Sounds more like a failed venture to me, especially considering the significant investment made by Apple.
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