Financial Crisis Survival Kit: Is Christmas Cancelled?

Sure, there's plenty of bad news about the economy swirling around this week, but some folks are still trying to convince us that this suddenly one-year-old recession is actually an opportunity.First the bad news. Small and midsize businesses are laying off even more workers than large businesses are, PC shipments are expected to shrink next year, and you can forget about bonuses and parties: A new PayCycle survey says 58% percent of small businesses who normally give bonuses are cancelling them this year, and 43% of traditional holiday party sponsors are either cancelling the party or toning it down.

Yikes! If Christmas isn't officially cancelled, sure seems like it.

But others still have hope. Gene Marks, for example, says Small Business Owners Shouldn't Fret Over Stocks. He suggests 6 tips to shrug off the market decline and drops in demand:

1. Make sure that overhead is covered. It helps if you know what your overhead actually is. 2. Buy real estate. He says it's relatively safe. 3. Negotiate better and longer-term leases.Landlords are "squirming." Take advantage. 4. Keep your eyes open for the right human capital. For employers, it's a buyer's market. 5. Invest in our customer databases. Finally there's time to take a deep breath and reorganize your customer databases. 6. Invest in infrastructure. Invest internally.

(I'm not quite sure how numbers 2 and 3 go together, but overall I think this is great advise.)

If you want even more, "international retail expert" Rick Segel, contends that sales are actually better than reported for two key reasons:

1. Gift cards, which don't hit the books till after the holidays. 2. Growth in online sales, which don;t show up in same-store-sales figures.

That gives Segal confidence to tell retailers to "just say 'no' to the recession" with his own 6 tips:

1. Bring them in with hot items. If you can become the sole seller of a certain 'hot' item in your area, you will be in great shape. 2. Make your store the place to get the best stuff. Reverse conventional wisdom and put the item first and the price second. 3. Give them something to talk about. Creative promotions, eye-catching window displays, in-store contests, and great merchandise. 4. Stay in front of your customers. If you don't already ask your customers for contact information, now is the time to start. 5. Introduce the discount-later sales technique. Once a customer reaches a spending threshhold, they get a coupon for 15% or 20% off their next purchase. 6. Sell every person who walks through the door. If someone enters your store, the potential exists for him to buy simply because he is in your store."

Is Christmas really cancelled? We'll know soon enough.