Calculating the rate of infection
I'm told that Cloudera and Hortonworks are each logging deals at a rate of 50 to 70 per quarter. Throw in all the other Hadoop distributors and call it 500 to 700 per year. That's at current rates, which we can assume will accelerate. In 2013, for instance, sales teams at HP, Microsoft, SAP, and Teradata added Hortonworks' distribution to the portfolio, and we can confidently guess that having more feet on the street will increase sales. Cloudera notes that deal sizes and deployments are growting. And let's assume also that these suppliers are pursuing the biggest companies possible.
With these stats, it won't take long to see big adoption among the Global 2000. From there the question is how much serious, production-grade work are they doing on the platform and to what degree are they moving existing workloads onto Hadoop? In 2014 we're still in the early days. By 2020, I think the data-management arena is going to be very different.